March 16, 2026 — In 2014, a government report warned that because of low births and aging, Canada's population growth could be “close to zero within 20 years” without immigration.
That’s happening now.
In a February 26, 2026 study, the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) noted that the country’s population is projected to be “flat” this year because of changes to the federal government’s immigration policy.
Further, 2026 could be the second year in a row wherein population growth will be zero because of the reduction of the number of newcomers, specifically non-permanent residents. NPRs are mostly international students and temporary foreign workers.
The PBO, which supports Parliament with economic and financial analysis, based its projection on the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan (ILP) by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
“With continued net outflows of NPRs offsetting growth in the permanent population, Canada’s total population in 2026 is projected to see flat growth for the second consecutive year and pick up only modestly to 0.3 per cent in 2027,” the study stated.
In the paper titled “Demographic Implications of the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan”, the PBO related that Canada’s population between 1972 and 2015 grew at a steady rate, averaging 1.1 per cent per year.
“Over time, however, the sources of this growth have shifted,” the study noted.
“In recent years,” it continued, “population growth has been driven almost entirely by net immigration, while natural increase (births minus deaths) has made only a small—and shrinking—contribution due to low fertility rates and an aging population.”
The 2014 report referenced earlier was done by Statistics Canada and it is titled “Population growth: Migratory increase overtakes natural increase”.
The agency noted that migration to Canada has been the “major engine of population growth since 1999”.
“Population growth caused by natural increase began falling in the late 1960s as a result of two factors. The first was a rapid decrease in fertility in the late 1960s and 1970s, which has remained at a fairly constant level since then. By 1976, fertility had fallen to fewer than 1.8 children per woman.
“The second factor was a steady rise in the number of deaths, partly due to population aging. As a consequence, migratory increase has taken on an increasingly important role in recent population growth,” Statistics Canada explained.
Hence, “Without a sustained level of immigration, Canada's population growth could be close to zero within 20 years.”
Statistics Canada provided reasons for the decline of fertility in Canada in a January 1, 2026 report titled “Fertility and intentions: Socioeconomic factors”.
“Increased educational levels, greater participation in the labour market, changing social norms and the widespread use of contraception have contributed to diversifying life paths, notably in terms of childbearing,” the agency noted.
According to Statistics Canada, this reality is directly related to the sharp decline in fertility.
“In 2024, Canada became part of the group of countries with ‘ultra-low fertility,’ with a total fertility rate of 1.25 children per woman. This strong decline in fertility is due not only to a decreased birth rate, but also to an increase in the number of women who do not have children either by choice, by circumstance or because they are delaying motherhood.”
As well, the average age of mothers at the birth of their child has been increasing for decades. In 2024, Statistics Canada noted, it “reached an all-time high of 31.8 years”.
Following the release of the February 26, 2026 PBO report, CTV News interviewed Michael Haan, professor and director of the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre at Western University in Ontario.
“In the 1950s, the average fertility rate was 5.6 children per woman, and now it’s 1.3,” Haan said in the news agency’s February 28 report.
“One of the reasons for that is the child that would have been raised in the 1950s was so much cheaper than the child we want to raise today,” the academic also said.
Haan also said in the CTV News report that Canada’s current fertility rate of around 1.3 children per woman would have to nearly double to reach the replacement-level birthrate of 2.1 children per woman. This rate would only “ensure broadly stable population figures, not real growth”, the report explained.
“If you want to see population growth, you’ve got to go above 2.1 and I just don’t see it coming,” Haan said.
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