December 16, 2024 — Canada remains one of the most preferred destinations for immigrants.
However, the country is struggling to keep newcomers.
A new report reveals a rise in the number of immigrants leaving for other countries, a phenomenon known as “onward migration”.
One in five immigrants who come to Canada will decide to leave within 25 years, according to the joint report by the Conference Board of Canada of Canada and the Institute for Canadian Citizenship.
Moreover, more than a third or 34 percent of onward immigrants will leave Canada in the first five years of their arrival.
The report titled “The Leaky Bucket 2024: A Closer Look at Immigrant Onward Migration in Canada” was released on November 19, 2024.
Daniel Bernhard is the CEO if the Institute for Canadian Citizenship, a Toronto-based organization that aims to promote integration of and citizenship for immigrants.
In his foreword to the report, Bernhard recalled that the first installment of the Leaky Bucket report in 2023 “incited considerable shock”.
“It stung to learn that despite Canada’s uniquely welcoming disposition, a growing number of immigrants are leaving,” he wrote.
“This second look at The Leaky Bucket reveals that the proportion of immigrants leaving Canada has reached an all-time high.”
Bernhard noted that economic immigrants or those selected for their skills and education are “most likely to leave”.
“How do people preaching about immigration’s harmful effects on housing or healthcare or inflation reconcile their views with the fact that economic immigrants—tradespeople who build our homes, nurses who care for our loved ones, truckers who facilitate commerce, entrepreneurs who spur innovation—are increasingly reaching for the door?”
Bernhard was referring to the increasing negative public opinion in Canada about immigration.
Public support for immigration has seen an erosion due to housing and economic concerns.
In an October 17, 2024 report, the Environics Institute for Survey Research stated that its survey indicated that for the first time in 25 years, a majority of Canadians now think that the country is letting in too many immigrants.
“For the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year,” the Environics Institute reported.
The Toronto-based nonprofit noted that based on its September 2024 poll, almost six in 10 (58 percent) Canadians “now believe the country accepts too many immigrants, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase since 2023, building on a 17 point increase over the previous year (2022 to 2023)”.
In his foreword, Bernhard wrote that economic immigrants to Canada are “not desperate people fleeing destitution for the comfort of Canada’s generosity”.
“Rather, they are a globally coveted talent pool with global options. When we fail to retain newcomers, we are essentially helping them to contribute to another country’s success,” Bernhard noted.
The report indicated that immigrants are “most likely to leave Canada three to seven years after arrival “
And “cumulatively, Canada is losing one in every five immigrants to onward migration in the long term”.
The report noted that based on the most recent available data from 2020, annual onward migration is “rising to the highest recorded percentage in the previous 20 years”.
“On average, immigrants who landed since 1982 are leaving at an annual rate of 0.9 per cent.”
While most onward immigrants (34 percent) leave within the first five years of arrival, the report also stated that the remaining onward immigrants leave between six and 20 years.
“Challenges with retention are particularly acute within the first five years of an immigrant’s arrival, and experiences in the early years can influence their settlement trajectory,” the report noted.
The report also made projections relating to the immigration targets of the federal government from 2025 to 2025.
The government’s plan calls for 395,000 permanent residents in 2025, and of these, the report stated that 0.8 percent are expected to leave after one year, which translates to 3,225 immigrants.
Moreover, one percent will leave after two and three years (3,954 and 3,870); 1.1 percent after four years (4,221) and 1.2 percent after five years (4,799).
“Overall, 5.1 per cent (or 25,500) of the 395,000 planned permanent resident admissions in 2025 are expected to leave by 2030.”
The report made a number of recommendations, including the development of strategies to address onward migration and understand the reasons why immigrants are leaving Canada.
“While the short-term challenges of onward migration are evident, the broader impact on Canada’s economy and its immigration objectives cannot be fully assessed without further, more detailed research that considers who, where, when, and why immigrants are leaving,” the report stated.
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