March 1, 2025 - Hours before dawn on February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sending a series of ballistic missiles and long-range artillery via air, land and sea from three directions and targeting multiple locations in the whole of the country, including around the capital city of Kiev. Thus started Putin’s Act of War in Ukraine.
Third Anniversary of Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine
Three years hence today, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians had been killed and injured; millions have been displaced from their homes; and “tens of thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped to Russia and Russian-controlled Belarus and Ukrainian civilians incarcerated in Russian-occupied territories” – a truly brutal war that shocks the human conscience.
Thanks to the military aid package and humanitarian assistance from its transatlantic allies – United States under President Joe Biden, United Kingdom under Boris Johnson and successors, European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen, and Canada under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – Ukraine has lost control of only a fifth of its land geography since the three-year invasion from the mighty Russian armed forces. In fact, Ukraine destroyed most of the Russian tanks and defeated the Russians in the sea. Most certainly, it can fight effectively. Indeed, it has shown the world its courage, resilience and heroism in defense of freedom, democracy and its sovereignty.
It is reassuring to learn that on this third anniversary of the war, Leaders of the G7 nations and European Commission have re-affirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – this year’s President of the G7 countries – “convened his counterparts and President Zelenskyy for a meeting to further discuss support for Ukraine, (including) its reconstruction and economic recovery.” To date, Canada has committed a total of $19.7 billion in military and humanitarian assistance, most of which to come from seized Russian assets.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who made his fourth visit since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago. President Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude to Canada for its unwavering support. (Link to www.president.gov.ua)
Said President Zelenskyy: "Thank you, Justin – especially for your leadership. We are deeply grateful to the Canadian people for their support, as well as for the military and humanitarian assistance. You have truly done a lot."
It is equally reassuring to learn that the Leaders of the eight Nordic-Baltic countries – the Presidents of Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania and the Prime Ministers of Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Norway and Sweden – not only “reiterated their unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine” but also affirmed that “Ukraine and Europe must take part in any future negotiations to achieve a just and lasting peace; (and ) Ukraine should be given strong security guarantees.”
Gathering of World Leaders in Kyiv in Support of Ukraine during the Third Anniversary of Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine, February 24, 2025 (Link to www.president.gov.ua)
Is Genuine Peace on Sight?
As the Russian aggression enters its fourth year, I raise the question because the latest news reports are both reassuring and disconcerting.
Reassuring Messages: It is reassuring that Ukraine, with the continued solidarity of military and humanitarian assistance from its transatlantic allies, has to date blocked Russia’s attempt to conquer Ukraine; reassuring that European and Canadian unwavering support of Ukraine has been re-affirmed during this year’s anniversary gathering; and reassuring that Europe and Canada have unequivocally shared Ukraine’s position that “Ukraine and Europe must take part in any future negotiations to achieve a just and lasting peace.”
Disconcerting Messages: While it is welcome that the current presidency of the USA, the mighty single-country source of multifaceted support, has begun to open the dialogue for peace, it is nonetheless disconcerting to read news reports that the Trump administration:
- “appeared to preemptively offer Russia almost everything it wants before negotiations on Ukraine were even underway;
- only briefly touched upon US plans to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine at the recent Munich Security Conference and, instead, downplayed Russian threats;
- blamed Ukraine for starting the war with Russia;
- considered US business transactions with Russians a strong motivation to broker a peace deal;
- voted with Russia and North Korea against the recent United Nations resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine;
- ruled out the deployment of US troops, as peace enforcers, to Ukraine; and
- stated that NATO membership would be off the table for Ukraine.”
US-Ukraine minerals deal: the silver lining on the horizon
Amidst the disconcerting messages, a silver lining occurred at press time (February 26, 2025) when news emerged that a “US-Ukraine minerals deal” is in the making, with US President Trump telling “journalists that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might visit Washington as soon as Friday (Feb 28th) to sign the pact.
How, indeed, might this deal positively influence the future of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, now on its fourth year? Intuitively, it could pave the way to win peace. Below is the analysis from the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center:
First, Ukraine has “significant reserves of titanium, graphite, and lithium, which are foundational resources for the US defense industry and wider high-tech economy,” says Director of Research and Programs Reed Blakemore who notes their “use in everything from batteries to aircraft, tanks, and submarines.”
Second, Deputy Director Olga Khakova believes that “having the United States intimately involved in the success of the fund [created by the agreement] and its profit is a win for Ukraine.” She added: “this deal could provide a roadmap for bringing large-scale Western investment into Ukraine,” which it will need for its enormous reconstruction needs.
Third, such huge investments would necessitate U.S. protection and, thereby, the necessity for deployment of European, if not American, troops – to guarantee the integrity of any peace agreement reached.
Finally, writes John E. Herbst, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine, for the New Atlanticist : It 1) “gives Trump one more reason to make good on his stated intention to broker a quick end to Russia’s war on Ukraine that ensures the sovereignty, economic viability, and security of Ukraine from future Kremlin aggression; 2) puts a crimp into Putin’s plans; and 3) will remind Trump of “what he said shortly after his inauguration – ‘that the real impediment to a quick, durable peace is Putin.’”
He further noted: “Zelenskyy got additional good news in the past two weeks that should help meet his security needs. The Europeans finally got serious about Trump’s proposal that their troops should deploy to Ukraine as part of a peace deal. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted two days of meetings with other European leaders to discuss this concept. Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are now discussing deploying as many as thirty thousand troops to Ukraine. Trump welcomed the idea, and the US president met with both Macron and Starmer this week; their visits perfectly tee up Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump on Friday, February 28th.”
Aptly concludes John Herbst: “Now it is Zelenskyy, not Putin, in the Oval Office.”
At press time February 28, President Zelenskyy was in the Oval Office in the White House with President Trump. Further opined Herbst: This mineral-resources deal would likely lead Trump “to ensure that the peace he brokers to end Russian aggression in Ukraine is durable.”
May it be true. The USA’s recent shameful vote at the United Nations – refusing to recognize the shameful and unlawful Russian invasion of Ukraine - remains deeply problematic.
With deep reluctance and tinctured with hope, may this US-Ukraine minerals deal herald, indeed, the dawn of genuine and lasting peace in Ukraine!
Is it on sight? Only the future can be certain.
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Editor's note: Dr. Rey D. Pagtakhan, P.C., O.M., LL.D., Sc.D., M.D. M.Sc. is a retired lung specialist, professor of child health, and former MP, Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, and cabinet minister. He graduated from the University of the Philippines, did postgraduate training and studies at the Children’s Hospitals of Washington University in St. Louis and the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, and spent a sabbatical year as Visiting Professor at the University of Arizona Medical Center. He is the author of articles and chapters in medical journals and textbooks and columnist for community newsmagazines. Widely lectured in Canada and abroad, he spoke in June 2003 on “The Global Threat of New Infectious Diseases” at the G-8 Science Ministers/Advisors Carnegie Group Meeting in Berlin. He volunteers on the Advisory Council of Immigration Partnership Winnipeg and the Board of St. Paul’s College Foundation at the University of Manitoba.
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